ADP is back with its jobs report after being out for the summer but now ADP is connected to a Stanford-related entity with former Jeffrey Epstein fixer, Reid Hoffman, on the Board.
HotAir reported today on the payroll company ADP being back with its jobs report after a summer siesta:
It’s baaaa-aaaaack … and it’s bad. ADP took the summer off to retool its monthly National Employment Report, thanks to a consistently non-predictive result when compared to the official jobs reports from the Bureau of Labor Statistics. Its new report, now in partnership with the Stanford Digital Economy Lab, predicts that job growth in August will miss expectations — by a lot:
Companies sharply slowed the pace of hiring in August amid growing fears of an economic slowdown, according to payroll processing company ADP.
Private payrolls grew by just 132,000 for the month, a deceleration from the 270,000 gain in July, the firm said in its monthly payroll report.
The Dow Jones estimate for the ADP count was 300,000.
“Our data suggests a shift toward a more conservative pace of hiring, possibly as companies try to decipher the economy’s conflicting signals,” said ADP chief economist Nela Richardson. “We could be at an inflection point, from super-charged job gains to something more normal.”
Uhhh … 132K for a month is not exactly normal, at least not in a healthy economy. It’s at best a population-maintenance level of jobs growth in a month, not a sign of growth. The White House has argued for the last month that jobs growth shows that the US has not entered a recession. If the next month’s report on Friday shows that job expansion has dramatically decelerated, that argument won’t hold up.
If this report is accurate, it also means that we’re likely to come up far short of full recovery from the pandemic in that dynamic sense of population growth, a point I raise routinely now that Joe Biden and his team claim that equaling the employment numbers of February 2020 is the same as a full recovery. From last month’s job report review:
What about the pandemic recovery claim? Well, sorta. With this report and the revisions to the last two months (net +28,000), official non-farm employment in the US has reached 152.536 million. That’s finally above the pre-pandemic level of 152.504 million of February 2020. However, the US population has not remained static in that period. As I noted last month, we added nearly 4 million people to the population in 2020 and 2021, let alone what we’ve added this year. At an employment-population ratio of 59%, we would need to add about 2.4 million more new jobs to fully and dynamically recover from the pandemic crash. We should be at somewhere closer to 155 million non-farm jobs, in other words, so we are still recovering jobs — this time from the lost job creation of the last 30 months.
What’s concerning most about this month’s report, is not that the economy is in a recession and jobs growth is abysmal. What is concerning is that the once independent ADP report is now being developed by ADP which is “now in partnership with the Stanford Digital Economy Lab”. Why does ADP need this partnership? Won’t this destroy its independence and therefore the reliability of its employment report?
Stanford’s Digital Economy Lab is part of the Stanford Institute for Human-Centered Artificial Intelligence (HAI)
The Stanford Institute for Human-Centered Artificial Intelligence (HAI) says its mission is to:
The mission of HAI is to advance AI research, education, policy and practice to improve the human condition. Led by faculty from multiple departments across Stanford, research focuses on developing AI technologies inspired by human intelligence; studying, forecasting and guiding the human and societal impact of AI; and designing and creating AI applications that augment human capabilities. Through the education work of the institute, students and leaders at all stages gain a range of AI fundamentals and perspectives. At the same time, the policy work of HAI fosters regional and national discussions that lead to direct legislative impact.
The Advisory Group of Stanford’s Digital Economy Lab includes Reid Hoffman.
Hoffman is a far-left NeverTrumper linked to Jeffrey Epstein. He also is a co-founder of LinkedIn.