After months of promising to strike a blow ostensibly to push Russia back to its original border Ukraine is on the March and, as expected, is suffering massive losses in men and materiel. And the losses are going to get worse. Russia already is claiming it killed almost 4,000 Ukrainian soldiers in a 48 hour period. The reasons for Ukraine’s impending failure are pretty simple. First, Ukraine does not have the trained manpower to muster 300,000 combat ready troops required to seriously threaten the Russians. Second, the troops that comprise the assault brigades have received different training from different countries (e.g., the U.S., the U.K., France and Poland) and have not been trained to operate as an army on the move. Third, Ukraine lacks the tanks, mobile artillery and close air support from fixed and rotary winged aircraft required to sustain an offensive beyond a week. Fourth, Ukraine lacks a viable air defense system and cannot stop Russian aircraft from pounding relentlessly Ukrainian supply lines and storage depots.
The destruction of a major section of the Kakhova dam and ensuing flooding of souther Ukraine is keeping the pundits quite busy with endless speculation about who done it and what does it mean. I suggest you read Simplicius’ account, which is comprehensive and provides a great summary of the various theories about who benefits and who suffers from this disaster.
Personally, I think it was a Ukrainian operation. The following tweet makes the case succinctly.
We have proof of sorts that this is the long promised Ukrainian offensive courtesy of Russian General Shoigu. He made an unusual public appearance and described in detail what Russia is doing:
Ukraine’s inability to defeat Russia on the battlefield and the accompanying destruction of almost a billion dollars in recently donated Western military equipment is likely to provoke a political upheaval in Kiev. I think Zelensky’s days are numbered. He is on a path eerily similar to Adolf Hitler’s demise in the bunker below the Reichstag as Soviet troops closed in.
When the post-mortem is finally done on Ukraine I think we will learn that Russian intelligence out-classed anything that Ukraine was provided by its Western allies. It appears that no one in the West has any good sources inside the Russian military command. Russia, however, has significant sources inside the Ukrainian General Staff, military intelligence and NATO and knows Ukraine’s plans and order of battle. Like a good poker player, Russia is not tipping its hand and is bidding its time in deciding when and how to strike. Right now the Ukrainian troops trying to advance on Russian defensive lines are being torn to pieces. Stay tuned.
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